Discussed below are some observations, questions, and tentative answers, for a variety of economic issues and business sectors. The common flavor is evolution, seasoned with a considered opinion that the stress foisted upon us makes nothing better (a failed business model will not be saved by the pandemic) but does make for change.
Whether we end up calling it a “W-shaped recovery” or a “double-dip depression,” the U.S. will likely endure another severe downturn in the fall or winter as a second wave of Covid-19 infections batters fragile economies and health-care systems. There are two basic preventive measures we should start doing now.
Expect a bumpy path for U.S. markets in 2020 as the economy comes back online, followed by a potentially more solid recovery in 2021.
Mohamed A. El-Erian has a long memory for financial crises. As the former CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, he helped lead the bond giant through the Great Recession, and was a voice of economic reason for investors. Before that, he worked for 15 years at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where his main focus was on crisis countries and debt issues. I caught up with Dr. El-Erian to discuss how the current crisis and the response to it will shape the U.S. and global economy in five to ten years.
Political scientist Ian Bremmer says there are silver linings in the “depression” brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, he said, the world may have needed this crisis to happen.
Here are six remnants of COVID-19 that the author believes will influence us as we move forward and will be indelibly etched in our society forever.
Life after COVID-19 according to 30 experts.
For some organizations, near-term survival is the only agenda item. Others are peering through the fog of uncertainty, thinking about how to position themselves once the crisis has passed and things return to normal. The question is, ‘What will normal look like?’ While no one can say how long the crisis will last, what we find on the other side will not look like the normal of recent years.
However long it will take, we will eventually beat back this virus, and our economies will eventually recover from the punishing recession it will have brought about. But when the dust settles and the masks come off, the pandemic will have permanently reshaped our social and economic behavior. Here are a few outcomes that seem increasingly likely.
A number of weeks ago, a TV anchor in New York asked me when the Coronavirus pandemic would be over, and when would the stock market finally bottom. I told her I couldn’t give her a specific date, but I could tell her the precise criteria that would be needed in order to know when everything would be returned to normal.