This week, the Federal Reserve raised policy rates by 75 basis points (bps), which it hasn’t done since 1994. The Fed’s message seems clear: It is solely focused on containing inflation, and it is willing to harm growth to do it.
Morgan Stanley’s proprietary year-forward recession indicator is now indicating a 27% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, up from just 5% in March.
While it may not be possible to avoid the effects of inflation completely, there are some things you may be able to do to reduce its sting without making drastic changes to your portfolio.
This issue is top of mind for so many people. And it’s no wonder — borrowers and investors have been in an unusually low interest rate environment for more years than they might remember.
The Fed knows it’s in a jam. Powell himself acknowledged inflation is “much too high” and the labor market is “extremely tight.” It is clear the Fed is acting swiftly and aggressively now precisely because those pressures are a clear risk to growth.
Covid-19, global supply-chain disruptions, frictions in reopening economies worldwide, and now Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are spawning many winners and losers in economies, financial markets and political structures.
Here are seven takeaways from Northern Trust’s top economic analysts.
Some countries are now regaining a degree of normality, though the threat of another variant-induced wave of disease remains. On this second anniversary, we reflect on ten things the world has learned through the course of the pandemic.
It’s critical that investors distinguish the long-term structural factors choking supply chains from the issues that are only temporary.
While the Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office remains cautious in navigating today’s market volatility and understands the complications that the war-induced commodity shock delivers to the global economy, we are far from calling a U.S. recession. There are three reasons why.