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The first half of 2022 has reminded investors, both professionals and do-it-yourselfers alike, that the predictable cycles of economic and business activity aren’t the only things that can push financial markets up and down.
The chances of a recession ticked higher recently, driven by the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike and hawkish forward guidance.
This week, the Federal Reserve raised policy rates by 75 basis points (bps), which it hasn’t done since 1994. The Fed’s message seems clear: It is solely focused on containing inflation, and it is willing to harm growth to do it.
Morgan Stanley’s proprietary year-forward recession indicator is now indicating a 27% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, up from just 5% in March.
While it may not be possible to avoid the effects of inflation completely, there are some things you may be able to do to reduce its sting without making drastic changes to your portfolio.
This issue is top of mind for so many people. And it’s no wonder — borrowers and investors have been in an unusually low interest rate environment for more years than they might remember.
The Fed knows it’s in a jam. Powell himself acknowledged inflation is “much too high” and the labor market is “extremely tight.” It is clear the Fed is acting swiftly and aggressively now precisely because those pressures are a clear risk to growth.